CLEAN – B O L D!

Namaste!

While relaxing on the couch, messages started poping up on Whats App of some ban on 500-1000 notes, initially I thought it was some prank or something, but after receiving same message came from 20 other people and the 1st time I started a News Channel in evening to see whats happening, no wonders it was the most shocking news.

Some years back when I was about to start Turtle, my mom took me to our Maharaj Saheb (Jain Saint) for seeking blessings. At that time I was a total atheist, but u could not afford to argue with mom, I went there being completely disinterested, but that day my life changed when Mahraj Saheb told me not to go to Derasar (temple), eat any food I like, or do anything want to, but to pay Income Tax and never do cheating, her words still eco in my ears, when she said “Rohan not paying tax is the biggest cheating to the country and desh ni chori e savthi maha chori (if you don’t pay tax you are a thief of your own country), the very next second I decided I will never do cheating in my company, as I could write blog at the time when 90% of people will have sleepless nights.

To be honest I was delighted while listening to the complete speech of Mr. Modiji, what a leadership Mr. Modiji has shown towards the Black Money, in the history of Indian Economy no Prime Minister has taken such a bold step ever, people used to brag him for his vows on Black money, but what plan he came up with to abolish black money! Bravo!!

Why this step was taken?

  1. India has a population of 130 cr. tax paying structure.

screenshot_2016-09-05-20-37-48

*Source – ET Wealth.

2. Lots of printed notes were transferred to India recently.

3. Curbing Black Money – Modiji specified very clearly, if you are not declaring money in income declaration scheme, after the scheme I will take strict steps, and he did it.

4. Lot of Entries were done and to curb all that which is illegal around

5. 90% of the transactions were done by 500 and 1000 note, which were highly black money transactions

So this has not been an overnight decision, this was much planned and warned effect, but surely will give many people sleepless nights.

“They ask how do you define a Wealthy Man? – The Man who can sleep Peacefully today with a smile on his face is Wealthy”

So what happens after this Biggest New?

  • Link for the full press release by RBI – 2f1c998b-9bca-4a34-a1d8-2a948d3a0a01
  • Do not worry we wont open with a lower circuit tomorrow (most probably)
  • This bold move will increase the credibility of Government, and on long-term scale we will blossom as an economy
  • Real Estate will have a huge Crack down, specifically in cities like Surat where most of the transactions are done majorly in cash, same which is happening in Hong Kong Real Estate Markets, it cracked from 20% to 45% in no time.
  • People who have taken Entries will be trapped badly.
  • It was deficiency of White money before, now it will be a deficiency of black money in markets.
  • People who had declared money in Income Deceleration scheme would be finding themselves very luck and smart.
  • 1st time Tax Payers like me are proud of doing Right things and paying Advance/Annual Tax.
  • People who have cash, a lot of cash, still will find a way to settle money, still recommending pay tax and enjoy that money for life time, stress Free!
  • People have started making line at ATM and Petrol pumps, dont the reason for it!
  • CA are in huge demand, they are shocked too.
  • BANKS will ask your ID proof while depositing the money, I.T. (Income Tax) guys will have a keen eye on the cash deposit happening in all the account.
  • Dont make mistake to take an entry, it will be the worst decision, if you do so.
  • Lot of so-called Rich guys who went for long holidays will take flight back to their own cities in a day or 2.
  • My wife has shown me her cash savings today, 1st time in 8-9 years, and she is damn worried about it, i am sure all housewives will show their husbands the amount of cut they have done in the monthly budget.
  • Temples or any other holy place is going to be full tomorrow!
  • Paytm and online wallet companies valuation will suddenly erupt.
  • Banks as a sector also will have more business as more transactions will be done through banks, surge of Debit and Credit Card use will help banks!
  • Suddenly Hillary,Trump are aside now, its only MODI-ji!
  • Tomorrow Real Estate Sector will be a sector to be watched, though I am Short in most of the stocks of that Sector since a fortnight ago!
  • 100% white projects in real estate will have an extremely good demand
  • It’s the 2nd time in India that Currency notes are DE monetized, it happened before in 1978.
  • Suddenly 100 Rs. Note value shoots up.
  • E-commerce company will have a good edge as COD (Cash on Delivery) will have a hit, and people will pay by Credit or Debit Card.
  • Gold Companies will also have a huge hit, lots of cars could be seen near Jewellers in Surat
  • On a lighter note, people are ready to do some operations if some cash is adjusted..lol.
  • How smart Modiji is smart  – example
    • 9 &10 Bank Holiday due to currency exchange.
    • 12 Bank Holiday – Saturday
    • 13th Bank Holiday – Sunday
    • 14th Bank Holiday – Gurunanak Jyanti
    • Ample of time to Transit money into Banking System, that’s a plan and a damn smart plan.

On a larger scale, it is surely a tough decision, but it’s the right decision, people who are paying tax was made fun by one who was not, its the win of the one who always believed in paying taxes and keeping India at the First Place!

before my wife shouts “Rohan you have office tomorrow, time to sleep” – let me sign off…

Regards

Rohan.

Disclaimer

This blog/report/newsletter is for the personal information of the authorised recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. The goal of this report/newsletter/site is to provide data that may be helpful for informational purposes only, each user is fully responsible for his own investment activities and should never act upon the information contained within this blog, without first consulting.

 

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October – Turtle Monthly Market Report

Namaste!

Writing this Blog Sitting in Goa, it feels proud when you relax and still your money (stocks) works for you, the more you spend the more the Portfolio Works, Its Exciting, and as i always say to everyone “I am the most luckiest to have this Profession”.

Wishing you a Great Year Ahead with lots of Discipline and Patience!

Contents:

  • Last Month Blog Review
  • Current Market Behavior & Whats Next?
  • Building the Bridge! Monthly Article
  • Disclaimer – Safer Harbor.

Last Month Market Review

Review of Last Month Market Review, Highlights, Whats Next and Stocks

Things which Went Right:

  • Nothing much happened for Indo Pak War, it seems like it is faded away.
  • Suggested that nothing much will happen in markets, as people are in “CONFUSED ZONE” market from 3 Derivative expires are closing at the same area of 8600.
  • Market remained in a strict Range of 8900 – 8500 (Market tried 2 times to test 8500, but came up decisively).
  • NIFTY IT Index is holding at 10000 levels, anything below will be a very scary picture, almost all IT stocks are trading below there long-term averages.
  • Bank NIFTY trailed in Strict range of 21000 – 19000.
  • Media stocks did pretty well in sluggish markets specially SUN.

Things which didn’t went well:

  • Metal Stock didn’t do well in the month, but today if i see lot of Metal Stock are doing well like Hindalco, Tata Steel etc.
  • Bank Nifty after RBI policy also dictated no Trend.

Past Stock Performance:

No. Reco. Date Stock Reco. Price Current Price Price Change Percentage Change
1 2.09.16 Escorts 330 375 23.27 13.64
2 2.09.16 Zee Enter 530 520 9.22 -1.89
3 2.09.16 Gujarat Alkali 310 411 -0.27 32.58
4 2.09.16 Tata Chemical 560 545 -4.31 -2.68
5 2.09.16 Thirumalia Chemical 440 920 45.22 109.09
“Price as on 1.11.2016, I or my Investors have personal Positions in all the stocks”

 Current Market Behavior & Whats NEXT?

Market continues “Standing on the Cross Roads”on Index level, nothing is happening  from last 3 months. Nifty Crossing 8800 – 8900 will dictate a new Trend on upside or on downside 8500 market goes on a very weak note.

It’s pure a stock specific game, Mid-cap Small cap are doing fabulous as market is rising every day 1% on NIFTY, but its not happening, it’s a bag of mix emotions as market corrects below 8500, it will be a signal for Mid-cap Small cap to correct.

Market actually has no Triggers, I don’t understand result much, but i believe seeing result of my holding stocks, result have come decent enough.

Tata case was a real shocker, i am sure it will yield to lot of case study in B school, with biggest lesson learnt “Anything can happen with us overnight – be ready”

Market is waiting for the US election results to have a new trigger for sure, as told before S&P 500 above 2200 will dictate a new Positive Trend in the era of Global Markets, and indication of Mrs. Clinton as a President.

“One thing you can note from my experience of being a Trend Following Trader we will see at least 5-8% NIFTY move on One side in this Quarter, above 8900 upper side, below 8500 down side” – be ready for it!

Index Side:

  • M3 – Metal, Media, Mining will be the theme!
  • Banks – Needs a Direction!
  • IT – Below 10000 looks very scary, can have a small turn around.
  • Real estate – if NIFTY Real Estate Index closes above 217, we will see some good upside in Real estate stocks – Oberoi Realty looks good.

Stocks for the October Month:

No. Reco. Date Stock Reco. Price Comments
1 1.11.2016 Arvind 420 24 Years Technical Breakout, with Great fundamental Change
2 1.11.2016 GNFC 290 26 Years Technical Breakout, with decent company financial
This stocks holding period is not Long Term nor Short Term, it’s till the Trend Ends, the update of Exit of Booking profits will be updated in the Blog. I surely have personal interest in the stock, this is not a stock recommendation this is personal research which i like, i have all the reasons to go wrong, so invest contacting your investment Advisor

 Building the Bridge – Monthly Article!

Surat is the city of Bridge, if you visit surat you will understand it has indias Best Infrastructure. Nearly 10-15 bridges are always on going in any part of city, Traveling to my office its full of Flyovers, i always have related Building of Bridge and Investment as same process!

surat1.jpg

When a Bridge work is started it is the most painful for everyone, it creates lot of traffic, lot of work, and takes lot of time, I remember some bridges in surat took 5 years to get ready, but today it is saving so much time of Millions of people living in the city. City like surat is fastest in building bridges, but in many cities it takes much more time may be 5 years some times more, some issues may come in between and it can still get delayed, but why do we make bridges?

To connect fast and to make the traveling more faster, it may take some years of pain but once it is done, it can be the single most important thing for traveling.

Why do we invest?

It may be painful in the initial years but after 10 years, you don’t work for Money, Money works for you.

Same is with Investment, when you start it is painful, when your friend buys a IPHONE 7 , goes for a ladakh road trip, buy a flashy car or buy a Royal En-field bike, you will feel like Investment is the biggest mistake you have done, it gives more and more pain as you are not gaining anything on the money instantly, as bridge takes nearly 5 years to get it perfect, same is with investment, returns should be expected after 5 years only, but once the investment returns starts flowing off and the bridge is made its the real happiness of life, believe me nothing is more happier then to have “Financial Freedom”, Passive income where you don’t work still money flows for you.

Today i am writing this in Goa, and the money is been working for me, i am not working for money. Some years back i saw a video “The Pipeline Story” and it changed my life totally, everyday my thought is how to make a New Bridge where after 5 years it starts working for me and i don’t have to work for it.

Actually most of us have tried to be Financially Free by building a bridge, still why most of us are not financially free?

Everyone starts building the bridge but lack of patience kills them and the bridge is not completed. I have seen many investors in my career who were excellent in planning to build a bridge, they started also very smartly, but in between the lack of Persistence killed them as sometimes it took more time then there expectations or many time just LACK OF PATIENCE was the reason of the bridge never made, at the end they complained that there Fund Manager or Markets didn’t make money, but the real reason was that it was the Lack of Patience and Persistence which was the real reason bridge – Financial Freedom was never made or archived.

Today when i meet the young earning people they are in the lure of breaking the bridge, before ever building it, as the world today have shown to leave as you will die tomorrow, its great if you know when you will die, the problem is we don’t know when we will die, and the question is if we will stay more and bridge is not made, age will diminish slowly, energy will go slowly down and we will not be able to travel the same distance we traveled without bridge, slowly the people who had build the bridge will go very ahead in life and the one who has not will travel the same old roads!

Ask a Question to you this New Year, “Are you Building Bridge, or Breaking it”,with this i am leaving 2 videos for the Month that will enhance your vision about being Financially Free.

Investing & Trading Habits – Video

Disclaimer:

This blog/report/newsletter is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. The goal of this report/newsletter/site is to provide data that may be helpful for informational purposes only, each user is fully responsible for his own investment activities and should never act upon the information contained within this blog, without first consulting.

September- Turtle Monthly Market Report

Namaste!

Seeing the feedback of the my previous and the very first Blog, I was really inspired to write the new one, and as decided I would write in the beginning of the new month.

Contents:

Last Month Blog Review

Current Market Behaviour & Whats Next?

Spending Spree!

Disclaimer

Last Month Blog Review

Things which went Right:

  • Market didn’t breach 8500 levels on 30th (India Pakistan War Concerns) and it recovered today to almost normal
  • Till 8500, it is the Buy on Dips Opportunity that worked very well
  • NIFTY IT Index closed down and was very very weak

              Review of the Stocks which I liked last month.

No. Date Stock Price to Buy Current Price % Change

as on 3.10.16

1 2.09.16 Escorts 330 406.8 23.27
2 2.09.16 Zee Enter 530 578.85 9.22
3 2.09.16 Gujarat Alkali 310 309.15 -0.27
4 2.09.16 Tata Chemical 560 535.85 -4.31
5 2.09.16 Thirumalia Chemical 440 638.95 45.22

 

Things which didn’t go Right:

  • A Close above 8900, can reach to the levels of New High, NIFTY didn’t reach that New High, Still I believe till 8500 is on HOLD, and NIFTY above 8900, and we may achieve a New High.
  • Bank Nifty didn’t do that well

Current Market Behaviour & Review

As I stated in my last month’s blog  “If the danger of what is going to come next is clearly visible, it is surely not a danger”, India-Pak war concerns came suddenly, without any previous indications from anywhere, not even any rumours on WhatsApp. That’s the power of the market, it took hardly 3 minutes for NIFTY to tank 200 points and stocks to bleed by 10-15%, and the fear persisted until the end of markets. The whole weekend I got news of the war and may be the war was discounted and on Monday we almost erased most of the losses we did on Friday. Practically, to have a war in 1990’s and having it in 2016 are two completely different scenarios, I believe the world can never be happy or afford to have a war like situation in today’s date, I am sure there would be some in between settlement (purely my sentiments, no market theories involved in it).

Currently considering the current major market position, the people are still in a “confused zone” of what market will be, owing to the war concerns and high valuation. Still, compared to the indices, Individual stocks are doing fantastic like Escorts or Thirumali, they did exceptionally well in the past one month. Majorly most traders or investors are not highly leveraged – One of the biggest reason of the market crash is very High leverage, which is not at all the current market condition. Individuals are sitting with cash, waiting for a correct market opportunity to invest i.e. when the market goes down (no one can make profits through this and if done market will further go down for sure). On the wider scale, still market may remain in a range of 8900 – 8500, a breakout in either of the sides will take the market to a decisive direction.

The biggest upcoming events are elections in the USA, Clinton vs. Donald, according to my wisdom of understanding the humans since 1600 B.C., My analysis says Mrs Clinton holds 85% probability of winning. Moreover, if S&P 500 closes decisively above 2200 for a week before elections, note it down its Mrs Clinton.

“As it can be said Market is Standing on a Cross Road”

Individual stocks are the key to markets now, stocks can do very well even if the market fails to perform well. Provided the stocks are picked on the basis of the strong fundamentals and technical and the risk management and stop losses in place.

On Index side IT index can prove to be a turnaround, the dollar should be seen rigorously. If some uncertainty takes place- IT can be a safe heaven, I believe there can be a bounce back in IT index from 10000 Levels, below 10000 levels IT index looks very very scary.

Bank Nifty looks on the consolidation zone upper side to 21000 (i.e. lifetime high) and downside to 19000 is a strict range, anything above or below will dictate the trend in the upcoming RBI Policy.

This month base metals in commodity have done very well, especially Lead, NIFTY Metal Index looks very firm and Strong.

The biggest Joker in the game can be NIFTY Media Index & companies are showing super strength, it is Trailing at ALL TIME HIGH, with stocks like Zee, Sun, PVR etc. This is the most neglected sector, but still, it can prove to be the Leader in coming time.

“This month none of the stocks looks Interesting, we continue with last months stocks.”

Spending Spree!!

It’s Diwali time and you must be seeking ideas to give lots of gifts to your family and friends as it is reminded every time by all the online websites. Such websites demonstrate that by giving gifts you can make everyone around you happy, I totally agree it’s a Festival time and it has to be the special one for sure. I am also in a dilemma of whether I should gift my family such gifts that make them happy for a short term and then are forgotten and forgone by the next Diwali? Or should I give something which is of a value for the lifetime and could rejoice years after years?

I recall Warren Buffet’s thought “If you buy something you don’t need, you need to sell something you need”

Think before buying the stuff on so-called Big Discount Day that you don’t need, or the stuff you are buying just for the sake of making some one happy for a short time. If there is a discount that doesn’t mean you need to buy it, remember not buying things you don’t need itself has 100% discount. This Diwali do something different from buying instantly gratifying stuff by replacing them  with something that actually adds value to your life. Then what should be the gifts for Family, I have a special plan for you-

  • Most of the families in India have below average level of Health and Life Insurance -buy that on this Diwali for your near and dear ones.
  • This Diwali Invest and Buy some great books for your family, everyone needs them irrespective of their stages in life.
  • Do some good Investments which can yield long term returns for yourself and your kids, be it in ETF, Mutual Fund or Gold.
  • Invest in a Good CCTV Camera in your home, Security is 1st.
  • Take Family Gym or Yoga Membership for your full Family, remember if you all are healthy and fit it’s a bliss.
  • Buying a board game where the whole family can play together.

There is so much you can give and do which surely won’t make you happy initially, but it will be remembered every Diwali.

I would like to share one of my Videos on “The Spiritual Trader” I am sure you would love it.

On that note, wish you a Happy Diwali and a Great New Year, will pray your family to be more prosperous and Healthy! See you in November.


Disclaimer:

This blog/report/newsletter is for the personal information of the authorised recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. The goal of this report/newsletter/site is to provide data that may be helpful for informational purposes only, each user is fully responsible for his own investment activities and should never act upon the information contained within this blog, without first consulting.

Finding from Apple Event – 7

Hello Apple Fans!!

I am also one of the BIGGEST fans of APPLE, generally, I sleep max by 9, today its 1 am and I am still analysing the event, here are my findings:-

  • Mario would be now on Apple, it’s good, but people who will buy such a costly phone won’t have so much time to play game, Just kidding!! Its good game, and would prove to be a tough competition to Pokemon, and people like me, who were born in 1980’s will surely be pleased to experience their “Old Love”
  • Apple Watch is shockingly the 2nd best watch in the world today, after Rolex, all others are disrupted by apple.
  • They have announced the I work collaboration, which I believed had the least use, and you can do same with I cloud drive too, though it’s fine.
  • Nothing new in Apple Watch – Series 2, just some edition of GPS, and additional features here and there.imagedds
  • It is for the first time ever that Apple has refurbished its old products like Apple Watch – Series 1 will be refurbished with Dual Core processor & iPhone 6s with updated storage options.
  • Apple has sold 1 Billion iPhone that’s totally Insane for sure.
  • Pokemon go on Apple Watch was a smart one, surely the Game lovers will go on a spree.
  • The much awaited iPhone 7 looks exactly what Chinese company came with exact spec and body 2 months back (the exact phone was out 2 months back in Chinese markets), nothing new in iPhone 7 except the Jet Black Colour,
    • It is with water-resistance feature, I believe iPhone would be the last phone on earth to get this feature.
    • It said it now has a better camera, it had to improve, some of the low-budget phones have much better camera in comparison to iPhone 6s, 6s+
  • Space was a major issue with iPhone  as it was 16 GB, which they increased to 32 GB but now 64 GB has also been surpassed, so if you want more than 32 GB you have to directly buy 128 GB i.e. 4 times more space compared to the basic ones, (i still cant figure out what can be loaded so much in 128 GB in a phone,  it doesn’t get Heavy? lol)
  • Now Apple came with new wireless Air Pods, designed them really well, initially I thought they would be free with iPhone 7 but at end Tim Cook told it cost 159$, crazy!!…and you have to charge it in the box of the pods, so now if the box is lost you have to buy the box as well, that will further cost you 100$ again.
  • iPhone 7 Plus has Dual Camera, however, I failed to understand the use of it, and if it is really useful why has it not been introduced in iPhone 7 (which is going to sell the highest)
  • The Head Phone Slot has been removed from iPhone 7 (I don’t know why) they claim that when you use the mobile phone, why to use wired headphones? they will give an extension that can be plugged in the charger area and use a HEAD phone, I have some concerns in this:
  • image
    • Why to make life so complex, now extra care of the extensions is required for using head phones, if it gets lost (I am pretty sure I am going to loose in my case) I will have to buy a new one that would further  me 50$.
    • If I want to use my phone simultaneously while charging and headphone, what should I do?
    • Will iPhone 7 be introduced with any headphones or not – Not answered
    • imagedd
  • The New Live Photo is going to be one of the best feature of Iphone 7.
  • Apple Watch Nike + was a smart one, really will look Fab.imageass
  • A 10 Chip has 2 Chips which will select which app to be used for power saving, I found it pretty smart, but in the end iPhone 7 battery is just 2 hours more in comparison of iPhone 6s.
  • This is for the first time I have seen so many non-Apple entities coming for presentation for their apps and products with apple, truly apple is believing in cross connection.
  • The Saddest Part of all, Tim Cook declared the availability of the first slot from 16th of September, in some countries and later in others, surprisingly INDIA was not at all on the list of 30-40 countries, Thus I request ….  Modiji… kuch kariye…
  • Expect Iphone 7 to hit India in end of September or starting of October

  • I expected a Mac Book launch, which never came!
  • ios 10 will be officially launched on 13th Sept.
  • So now if you are an die heart apple fan and using all products you will have to have so many chargers
    • Mac Book Charger & Extension Ports
    • Iphone Charger
    • Iphone Extension Head Phone
    • Apple Watch Charger
    • Air Pod Charger.
  • This was the 1st iphone that changed its number from 6 to 7 and it had the least change of design.. very very sad, though they had conveyed it much before the launch.

The Verdict is  “Expected the Expected”, apple actually had spent lot of time on making PPT for the new event and less time on Products. Die heart Apple Fans will surely buy it, seeing the stocks price before event and after event it seems the crowd has taken this event as neutral.

Just to update you Apple Stock has gone up 100% in last 5 years, and 21000% Since Inception, so decide one should buy an Apple Iphone or Stocks of Apple?

Do give your views below regarding the event and the article, it motivates to write more!

Warm Regards,

Rohan.

 

August – Monthly Market Mirror

Namaste!

It was my deep desire to convey the market insights to all the investors and traders on a regular basis and here I come with a blog on it.

Contents for Monthly Market Mirror:

  • Market analysis & behaviour
  • Stocks which appear to be a very strong buy or short.
  • Article on When to Sell?
  • My gratitude to Mr. Warren Buffet.
  • Disclaimer

Monthly Market overview:

Presently, the market is on its strongest note, Nifty is consolidating on higher ranges but if we see stocks, they are doing amazing, what we are observing in NIFTY today is similar to the situations that were registered in 2005-06.

Technically, the market is in strong bull zone, weakness can only be seen below 8500 till then it is a buy at every level, while on the other hand, if Nifty closes above 8900 it can be said to be heading for a new Life Time High.

Retail participation, positions in bucket shops and the broker’s office generally provide a great sense of the market.I myself have been an in-depth observer of the market behaviour for a decade now. If we see the circles of market emotions, we fall in between optimism to excitement phase. I have conversed with many brokers and financial advisories and they all had a mixed review about the markets,however, in a nutshell they appeared to be “Cautiously Bullish” about the markets.

In bucket shops, the overall view is much bullish, average positions are long in stocks and short in index, more specially NIFTY, accompanied with some share of Bank Nifty.

Over leveraged positions fail to exist in the markets and no borrowed money has been infused in markets, such positions are rather possible only in the zone of thrill and euphoria. This chart depicts one the best hypothesis in the markets.

market cycles.gif

 Most of the fund has been shifted to PMS or Mutual Fund, and currently, no doubt there are no avenues in any other asset class to ensure an earning of 15% C.A.G.R, tax-free and that’s the brutal truth, as even the individual businesses are not able to grow at 15% CAGR.

A few days ago, my WhatsApp was flooded with P.E. of NIFTY, to be honest, I don’t understand P.E. much, but one thing I can bet on it is that,

“If the danger of what is going to come next is clearly visible, it is surely not a danger”

Options Premium and VIX  are suggesting one of a VERY big move in market either side, Volatility has been one of the lowest since many many months. Options Premium are so low that buying call and put can be considered as a smart strategy in markets.

On Index Side – Bank Nifty Looks Extremely Bullish, NIFTY – IT Looks very Bearish on major Index.

In a Nutshell 8900 and 8500 are the level to be focused on, rest the stock specific action will continue.


TOP 5 Stocks for the Month

This are the stocks which look very strong for long term buy, the exit (if required) will be uploaded every month in “Monthly Market Mirror” Itself.

No. Date Stock Price to Buy
1 2.09.16 Escorts 330
2 2.09.16 Zee Enter 530
3 2.09.16 Gujarat Alkali 310
4 2.09.16 Tata Chemical 560
5 2.09.16 Thirumalia Chemical 440
*Kindly read Disclaimer before Investing Top 5 Stocks have formed Multi Year Breakout on Charts, generally when this chart pattern happen it is considered to be ready for Multi Year boom, it is purely based my personal theory and hence there exists possibility of me going wrong.

The Big Question of Investment that has never been answered!

We have millions of analyst across the world, with zillions of predictions and multibagger ideas and there are lots of financial advisories which advice to die rich and live poor! considering these inputs, we all prepare our own investment ideas, right? We hear from a lot, think about a few and accordingly act on some, but do we know when to exit in that investment idea, does anyone recommend the exit plan while giving the investment idea?

Now the point is that no one foresees the future to this extent, I agree, but we all expect an optimistic future of that investment idea, don’t we? Hardly I follow any business channel, however, I did in the past 2 days, and I came across 3 very popular business channels that gave nearly 135 stock prediction out of which 50% were claimed to be “Multibagger Ideas”.Surprisingly, none of them gave the point of exit while giving the recommendation, but everyone gave target of the growth in terms of growth of price. So what does this means? Human only can only envisage the good things and not the bad ones?

This can be better explained through my real life example- some years back when I was a Research head, I used to come on many National Business Channels wherein I never used to be diplomatic in giving advice. One fine day a portfolio of Mr. Malhotra came to me and I had to recommend the Buy or Sell side to the holder on T.V. LIVE. We were two of us, one from the fundamental side of Leading Broking House and another one was me from the technical side, so as the flow came all the stocks of Mr. Malhotra turned out to be in very bad shape and I recommended SELL on all stocks whereas the representative from the fundamentals advised holding, owing to all those long term stories. The other day, I received a call from the channel saying I am not supposed to be that straight, as the investors don’t like to listen to SELL;because of which the TRP of the channel goes down, so I have to be more optimistic than pessimistic.

From that day till today whenever I book a trade or do investments for me or for my clients, the first thing that is decided is the point of “Exit”.

The same has happened with me personally a week back, one of my best stock in last 3 years has been Welspun India, I got the stock with one of my friend’s recommendation moreover, on the technical front also it appeared to be a multi breakout like 6 stocks which I recommended above. I and my clients bought its stocks and its price never looked back. Most of our buys was at around 14 rs. and in no time it went 5 folds upside, I have made a philosophy to take out the profits at a certain point of time (depends on the conviction of the stock) I took out my investment money around 50 rs. and trailed the remaining margin to 100+. Of course I was very happy with my investments, but as it is told if the coming danger could be foreseen, surely it is never a danger. Last to last Friday a company cancelled the order of Welspun and on Monday it was on 20% Seller Circuit, the following day again 20%,  and again 10% the next day and the story goes on. So it took nearly 16 months for the share price to rise from Rs. 50 to Rs. 100 and it took 4 days for the stock price to decline from  Rs. 100 to Rs. 50. If this can happen with a top class Midcap company with a market cap of more than 10000 Cr. that means anything is possible with any company.

So whenever you make any financial decision or investment, one significant question to be  answered before proceeding is “When to Exit” and the answer should be logical enough. If one has the answer, I believe he can place one of the best investments. Moreover, also ask the same question to your financial adviser or broker, not only in the case of equity but in any asset class.


Happy Birthday – Warren Buffet!

I was lucky to meet Warren Buffet and attend 50th AGM of Berkshire Hathway, it was indeed heaven for all the fellow investors.

Very few people know that Warren Buffet is the biggest innovator in the world, he innovated how to Invest and how to compound the wealth and he maintained it for more than 60 years now…and that’s Insane!

I would like to share a video which I made after Attending Warren Buffet AGM and knowing him more closely.“The Buffet Way”

I am sure this will give you an insight about warren buffet’s thought process and Life!


I hope you found it a good read, wish you a healthy as wealthy month of September, will come up with a new blog in October.

Warm Regards,

Rohan Mehta

rohan@turtlewealth.in


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